How systematic foresight identified today's environmental crises years before they became headlines
What if we could anticipate environmental threats before they become full-blown crises? What if, instead of reacting to disasters, we could prepare for them years in advance?
This isn't the stuff of science fiction—it's the crucial practice of horizon scanning, a systematic approach that helps scientists, policymakers, and conservationists detect early warning signs of emerging challenges. In September 2018, a diverse group of international experts published a groundbreaking report—the fifth in an annual series—identifying 15 emerging issues that could affect global ecosystems and human societies in profound ways.
This article explores how the 2018 Horizon Scan successfully forecasted several of today's most pressing environmental concerns, from mysterious wildlife diseases to controversial genetic technologies. We'll examine the rigorous methodology behind these forecasts, highlight the most impactful predictions, and consider what this tells us about our ability to navigate an increasingly uncertain future.
Horizon scanning detects weak signals of potential future developments before they become mainstream concerns.
International experts collaborate to identify issues with potential worldwide impact on biodiversity and ecosystems.
Horizon scanning is not about predicting the future—rather, it's about systematically investigating evidence about potential trends and developments to detect early signs of potentially important challenges and opportunities 2 . Think of it as an early warning system that helps us prepare for potential threats rather than simply react to them.
"A technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities."
When performed effectively, horizon scanning helps governments and organizations analyze whether they're adequately prepared for potential opportunities and threats, ensuring policies are resilient to different future environments 2 .
| Stage | Description | Key Activities |
|---|---|---|
| Scanning | Searching for signals of change | Monitoring trends, consulting experts, reviewing literature |
| Analyzing | Assessing potential impact | Evaluating significance, identifying interconnections |
| Synthesizing | Organizing and prioritizing | Grouping related issues, ranking by importance |
| Communicating | Sharing findings | Publishing reports, briefing policymakers, public outreach |
The 2018 horizon scan followed an established methodology that had been refined over nearly a decade. A diverse and international team with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation science reviewed 117 potential issues before identifying the 15 that were deemed to have the greatest potential impact on global biological diversity yet were not widely recognized by the conservation community 1 .
The process employed a Delphi-like approach to score and identify the most important topics. This method involves multiple rounds of questioning and feedback to reach consensus among experts, minimizing individual biases and ensuring robust conclusions 1 .
This wasn't an isolated exercise—it represented the ninth annual horizon scan in a series that began in 2009, demonstrating a long-term commitment to systematic foresight in conservation science 1 .
Initial Issues
Final Issues
International Experts
Years of Scanning
The 2018 horizon scan identified a fascinating array of emerging issues that fell into several broad themes: new mechanisms driving disease emergence and expansion, innovative biotechnologies with potential environmental applications, reassessments of global change phenomena, and developments in strategic infrastructure that could facilitate economic priorities while posing environmental risks 1 .
| Issue Category | Specific Issue Identified | Potential Impact | Current Real-World Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wildlife Health | Thiamine deficiency in wild animals |
Could affect multiple species and ecosystem functioning
|
Declines in bird and fish populations in Northern Europe |
| Disease Spread | Geographic expansion of chronic wasting disease |
Threatens deer populations and potentially other species
|
Documented spread in North America, Scandinavia, and South Korea |
| Biotechnology | Genetic control of invasive mammal populations |
Potential for ecosystem restoration but with ethical concerns
|
Gene drive research for invasive rodent eradication on islands |
| Cultural Shifts | Effect of culturomics on conservation |
Using digital data to understand human-nature relationships
|
Analysis of social media to gauge public engagement with nature |
| Novel Materials | Increasing environmental plastic pollution |
Broad impacts across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
|
Global movement against single-use plastics |
Among the most prescient identifications was the concern about increasing environmental plastic pollution, particularly the emerging understanding of microplastics as a threat to terrestrial ecosystems, not just marine environments. While public awareness of the plastic crisis would explode in the following years, the 2018 scan correctly identified that the terrestrial impacts were receiving insufficient attention 4 .
Another notable identification was the potential of culturomics—the analysis of digital records such as internet search trends, social media posts, and digital archives—to transform conservation science, policy, and action. This reflected early recognition of how big data and digital technologies could provide new insights into human relationships with nature and potentially influence conservation strategies 1 .
One of the more mysterious issues identified in the 2018 scan was the emerging evidence of thiamine (vitamin B1) deficiency affecting wild animal populations across broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions 1 . Sometimes called "the paralytic disease," this deficiency can cause neurological problems, immunosuppression, and reduced reproductive success in affected species.
Researchers had observed disturbing signs: declining populations of certain bird species in Scandinavia, reduced reproductive success in some fish populations, and abnormalities in invertebrates. The cause wasn't immediately clear, though hypotheses included changes in food web dynamics, environmental pollutants interfering with thiamine absorption or metabolism, or microbial shifts in ecosystems.
The horizon scan brought wider attention to this understudied phenomenon, emphasizing that a fundamental nutritional deficiency at the base of food webs could have cascading effects throughout ecosystems. Subsequent research has continued to investigate this issue, though it remains less prominent in public environmental discourse than other identified issues.
The 2018 scan also highlighted the geographic expansion of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal prion disease affecting deer, elk, and other cervids 1 . Unlike thiamine deficiency, this issue has gained increasing public awareness in the years since the scan.
Chronic wasting disease poses a dire threat to wild deer populations, with potential implications for ecosystem dynamics and human communities that depend on hunting. The disease is characterized by progressive neurological deterioration, weight loss, and behavioral changes in affected animals. The scan noted with concern the disease's spread to new regions and its persistence in contaminated environments.
What made this identification particularly insightful was the recognition that CWD's expansion represented more than just a wildlife management issue—it exemplified broader patterns of emerging infectious diseases spreading more readily in an increasingly interconnected world with altered ecosystems. The scan anticipated the complex policy challenges that would arise in balancing disease management with cultural and economic interests related to deer populations.
Horizon scanning relies on a diverse set of tools and approaches that enable researchers to detect weak signals of potentially significant developments. The 2018 exercise drew on multiple methodological approaches, each contributing unique insights to the process.
| Tool/Method | Function | Application in 2018 Scan |
|---|---|---|
| Delphi Technique | Structured communication method that relies on a panel of experts | Used to score and prioritize 117 potential issues 1 |
| Expert Consultation | Tapping specialized knowledge across multiple disciplines | Involved 24 experts in conservation, ecology, economics, policy 1 |
| Literature Analysis | Systematic review of scientific publications | Informed identification of emerging research trends 4 |
| Trend Monitoring | Tracking developments in news media and other public sources | Provided context about growing public awareness of issues 4 |
| Structured Workshops | In-person discussions to refine and debate findings | Enabled final selection of the 15 most important issues |
The process intentionally incorporated both manual scanning by experts attuned to subtle signals in their respective fields and more systematic approaches that ensured comprehensive coverage. This combination allowed for both specialized depth and interdisciplinary breadth.
An important strength of the methodology was its emphasis on international and diverse expertise. By including experts from different geographic regions and disciplinary backgrounds, the scan reduced the risk of regional or cultural blind spots and increased the likelihood of identifying truly global concerns rather than parochial ones.
A critical question about any forecasting exercise is whether it actually makes a difference. Do horizon scans merely identify interesting possibilities, or do they genuinely influence research agendas and policy decisions? Evidence suggests that these exercises have meaningful real-world impact.
A review of the first horizon scan conducted in 2009 found that conservation organizations significantly increased their involvement with and awareness of the identified issues in subsequent years 4 .
Horizon scanning has been explicitly integrated into policy-making processes in several countries, including the United Kingdom, Singapore, the Netherlands, and Switzerland 2 .
The issues identified in the 2018 scan have followed varied trajectories, with some like microplastic pollution exploding into public consciousness while others developed more gradually.
"It's not about making predictions, but systematically investigating evidence about future trends" to ensure governments are "adequately prepared for potential opportunities and threats" 2 .
The 2018 horizon scan stands as a powerful example of why we need systematic approaches to anticipating environmental challenges. By successfully identifying issues that would grow in importance—from plastic pollution to emerging wildlife diseases—the exercise demonstrates that we can, to some extent, see around the corners of our complex environmental future.
Perhaps the most valuable lesson from horizon scanning is the importance of humility and preparedness in the face of uncertainty. As noted by the UK Cabinet Office, "It's not about making predictions, but systematically investigating evidence about future trends" to ensure governments are "adequately prepared for potential opportunities and threats" 2 .
The challenges ahead are substantial—climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution represent three interconnected planetary crises that require urgent, international action . But tools like horizon scanning offer hope that we can navigate these challenges more effectively by anticipating them rather than merely reacting.
The next time you hear about an emerging environmental concern, consider that it might have been identified years earlier by experts engaged in the vital work of horizon scanning—the art of seeing what others haven't yet noticed, to protect what we cannot afford to lose.